Ecuador has been dealt one of the easiest group at the World Cup 2014, but despite the fact that their opponents are not as tough, the South Americans are not exactly favorites to advance to the next stage. Switzerland is the team they need to beat, but they can't afford to lose any points to Honduras, the clear underdog of Group E.
The qualification campaign was particularly difficult and once again Ecuador made the most of home pitch advantage to collect the vast majority of points. As all football fans are fully aware, the fact that the game is played at high altitude represents a big advantage for the hosts and so far they did a fine job at capitalizing on it. The problem is that all the games will be played on the road in Brazil and there will be just as unaccustomed to the scenery as their opponents.
Group stage and event prospects
Surviving the group stage is the first and only objective that La Tri players have at the World Cup and Bet365 gives them odds of 1.90 to make it to the elimination round. This is not exactly bad, but it is worth mentioning the fact that Switzerland is credited with the second chance after France. The European teams are great at preserving early lead and even though the Swiss play defensive football, they have a couple of players capable of scoring from inside the box.
Coach Reinaldo Rueda needs to prepare his team properly before each game, because Ecuador will need to shift from defensive to aggressive game. Winning the game against France would be an overly ambitious objective, but the draw against both European teams would serve them well. Anything short of a straight victory over Honduras would most likely cause the untimely elimination of Ecuador. Their chances to make a deep run are minimal and the odds of 126 to 1 for the South Americans to win the World Cup only serve as reference.
Key players for Ecuador at the World Cup
Reinaldo Rueda didn't take too many chances during the qualifying campaign and the reason is that he doesn't have too many experienced players. The team is still going through a difficult period of reconstruction and until the process is complete, Ecuador is unlikely to play any role on the big stage. In Brazil, they will rely most on team unity rather than inspirational players, although there are a couple of names that stand out from the crowd.
Valencia is without a doubt the only top class player in their starting formation and his experience with Manchester United should serve him well. He got a chance to shine when van Persie was injured but will play an even more important role for the national team. He has the speed, skills and experience to find any weak spots in Switzerland's defensive and score a goal that could prove decisive for Ecuador.
Not surprising, Valencia is also favorite for the title of top scorer, tied with Caicedo as both of them are given odds of 151 to 1. Both are unlikely to actually deliver, as no matter how well they play in the group stage, they still depend on Ecuador to make a deep run at the World Cup and this is unlikely to happen.
The bottom line
Ecuador can cause an upset in the group stage and shouldn't be ruled out as a potential qualifier, but the odds of 1.90 are not big enough to warrant the risk. There is obviously no point in backing either players for the top scorer award or the national team to win the trophy. A safer approach is to bet on each game individually and hope that the South Americans will rise to the occasion.
