With just one month before the World Cup 2014 begins, Colombians are still anxiously waiting for Radamel Falcao to resume training. He is of the best strikers in the country's history and their best chance in Brazil, so it makes perfect sense for the fans to grow restless. With him on the pitch, the Colombians should cruise through the group stage and they might become a dark horse in the elimination rounds.
If the worst-case scenario becomes reality and Falcao's injury prevents him from playing at the World Cup, the South Americans will still have a decent chance. They bring to Brazil one of the best offensive players in the world and their midfield is equally good, so they could easily overwhelm opponents. The Achilles heel remains their somewhat stiff defense, but coach Jose Pekerman is experienced enough to overcome these shortcomings.
Group stage and event prospects
It looks like bookmakers are overly confident in Colombia's chances to survive the group stage, despite not knowing for sure which is Falcao's status. Bet365 offers the best odds for Colombia to reach the elimination rounds at 1.25 which is still very little value for savvy punters. Winning the group would be a better choice, but the South Americans should expect a lot of opposition for the likes of Ivory Coast, Japan and Greece.
Each of these opponents is difficult and the fact that all three teams use different strategies, will test the Colombians early at the World Cup. The qualification campaign was impressive as Colombia had no problems in finishing within striking distance of Argentina. They didn't lose too many players to injuries, and even Falcao got sidelined as a result of a hard tackle in Ligue 1. Even if he only returns after the group stage has concluded, he would still be a huge bonus for Colombia.
Key players for Colombia at the World Cup
Even though his status is uncertain, Falcao remains the key player for Colombia and this is the only player in their rotation that is truly irreplaceable. On a good day, he will have no problem in penetrating the Japanese or Greek defense, while delivering a superb show against the Ivory Coast. Colombia is expected to score a lot of goals at the World Cup and Falcao is among the favorites to become the top scorer with odds of 26 to 1 at Bet365.
Jose Pekerman won't wait until the final minute and hope for a miracle, insted he will prepare the starting formation featuring Bacca and Martinez upfront. The two players met in Europa League quarterfinals this season and each of them spearheaded the offensive of their team, with Bacca emerging victorious. They will reunite in Brazil and together they will cause countless problems to the stiff Greek defense and could even throw the precise Japanese backline off-balance.
Teofillo Gutierez is another top striker and the third favorite to become the top scorer, after Falcao and Martinez. Bet365 give him odds of 67 to 1, better than Bacca's 81 to 1 but punters are advised to wait if they plan on backing any of these players. If Falcao returns to fitness, their chances to become the top scorers will sink much more than they would if the aforesaid striker misses the World Cup 2014.
The bottom line
There is no value in backing Colombia to survive the group stage and even win it, while the uncertainty regarding Falcao renders any bet on top scorers too risky to take. Odds of 29 to 1 with Bet365 for Colombia to win the World Cup scream value, despite the inherent risks.
